Wilmington, N.C- There’s a shoe, the proverbial second shoe, that Cape Fear Real estate agents have been nervously waiting to fall. Now there’s a sign, following a recent study by Just For Buyers Realty, that suggests that the second shoe may already be heading for the ground.
After nearly three years of record setting sales, where all leverage was in the hands of the real estate sellers, things have started to cool in the last six months. Nationwide, and here in North Carolina, the overall number of sales, the number of homes going under contract and the number of new homes debuting on the market are all down year-to-year.
“Those are three of the big four categories we watch to determine what the market is doing and where it is going,” said Scott Saxton of Just For Buyers Realty. “The fourth category is the second shoe that we’ve all been watching… it’s the price of homes.”
The biggest difference between the local and national real estate market is what’s happening with the average price of homes. From coast to coast prices are coming down. According to the National Association of Realtors homes on the market in May of 2023 are priced, on average, 22% lower than where they were the same time last year.
By contrast here in the Cape Fear region prices continue to go up. Last spring homes in the tri-county area of New Hanover, Brunswick and Pender Counties sold for an average price of $345,000. A year later that price has increased to $390,000. That’s a jump of 13%.
“At first glance it makes sense that local housing prices were bucking national trends,” said Saxton. “This is a very desirable area to live. People want to move here. It’s in high demand. Prices should be up, but we wanted to take a closer to look.”
Instead of studying the region as a whole, the Just For Buyers Realty team decided to focus on sales in 40 of the most popular neighborhoods throughout the Cape Fear region. “The best way to really see what the market is doing is to zoom in on one area at a time,” said Saxton.
Overall JFB discovered that in 24 of the neighborhoods prices are continuing to climb, but in 16 other popular communities the average price of a home that sold in 2023 is down- sometimes dramatically down- from its highs last year.
Half off all the neighborhoods were prices have decreased are located in Brunswick County, (five are in Pender County and three in New Hanover County.) Beyond that difference there doesn’t seem to be much rhyme of reason to where costs continue to go up and those areas where prices have already started to come down.
The study found that the age, style, and location of the neighborhoods didn’t seem to play a factor in the price structure. The JFB team discovered prices in nearby neighborhoods, with similar features and amenities, where one community went up in and the other experienced a dip.
Here is the complete list of the 16 neighborhoods were the average price has gone down. It includes newer track developments, but also older established neighborhoods. Some of the neighborhoods are known for their luxury living, and others on the list are geared more toward first time buyers.
“When an exact connection doesn’t jump off the page, it means this is something we are going to have to continue to watch before we really know what’s going on,” said Saxton. “This is still very much a seller’s market. Inventory is still too low for the leverage to switch over to the buyers. But when you see start seeing something in all different area, in all different price points… it does appear that the other shoe may be falling.”
| Neighborhood | Average Price 2023 | Average Price 2022 | Difference |
| Avalon | $308,999 | $342,654 | -$33,655 |
| Belvedere Plantation | $390,000 | $449,058 | -$59,058 |
| Brunswick Forest | $516,117 | $526,204 | -$9,427 |
| Crow Creek | $286,033 | $329,489 | -$43,456 |
| Dogwood Lakes | $365,000 | $415,300 | -$50,300 |
| (The) Farm | $280,000 | $337,851 | -$57,851 |
| Kure Estates | $835,940 | $1,078,500 | -$242,560 |
| Lucia Point | $735,000 | $779,708 | -$44,708 |
| Magnolia Greens | $394,477 | $457,315 | -$62,838 |
| Mallory Creek Plantation | $341,454 | $360,309 | -$18,855 |
| Olde Point | $1,005,971 | $683,663 | -$322,308 |
| Palmetto Creek | $422,376 | $447,376 | -$25,167 |
| Pelican Reef | $520,625 | $606,761 | -$86,136 |
| Porter’s Neck | $688,178 | $738,275 | -$50,097 |
| Waterford of the Carolinas | $518,142 | $527,993 | -$9,851 |
| Waterside | $439,075 | $452,734 | -$13,659 |