The Cape Fear real estate market is now balanced. That may not sound like exciting news, but after nearly four years of firmly being in a seller’s market, bouncing back to the middle is a big deal.
A market’s designation is a mathematical equation that divides the total number of homes currently listed (inventory) by the average amount of sales per month. For instance, using round numbers, if 100 homes are currently listed, with 50 homes selling on average every month, (100 divided by 50), that means there would be 2 months of inventory. A seller’s market happens when there is 0 to 3 months of inventory. A balanced market falls between 3 and 6 months. Buyers get the leverage when there are more than 6 months of inventory listed on the market.
As of this writing, throughout New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender Counties, there are a total of 2,774 homes that are active on the market. So far in 2024, the average sales per month in the Cape Fear region is 803 homes. When you do the math, that means right now there are 3.45 months of inventory—or a balanced market.
A balanced market simply means supply is meeting demand and therefore neither the buyer nor seller has an advantage.
However, inside of the tri-county area, the market conditions can move dramatically from one town to another. The JFB team went deep into the numbers to figure out which areas are providing the best deals, and which areas still remain more competitive.
In the charts below, those towns listed in green have enough supply that they are officially in a buyer’s market. Those towns listed in orange are the locations where the advantage still swings towards the sellers.
Brunswick County is booming. Every year from 2010 to 2014, the county has grown by 3% to 5%. It is the fastest-growing county in North Carolina and the 9th fastest-growing county in the nation.
All that growth is good news for buyers. It seems like every week, certainly every month, a new subdivision is approved for development somewhere in Brunswick County—these include massive communities with thousands of homes. Every time a home is built, inventory increases, and leverage shifts in the direction of the buyer. However, what our study shows is that the buyer’s leverage only exists in central and southern Brunswick County. Some towns are already in a buyer’s market with more than 6 months’ worth of inventory. But when you move north, when you move to those areas that are bedroom communities to Wilmington, the inventory dramatically drops, and the leverage firmly remains in the hands of the sellers.
| Town | Homes on the market | Average Price | Average D.O.M | Inventory by months |
| Ash | 7 | $343,873 | 119 | 7 Months |
| Bald Head Island | 36 | $1,997,136 | 136 | 4.5 Months |
| Belville | 1 | $874,495 | 136 | NA |
| Boiling Spring Lakes | 9 | $333,313 | 90 | 3 Months |
| Bolivia | 182 | $396,567 | 91 | 3.9 Months |
| Calabash | 222 | $408,467 | 85 | 5 Months |
| Carolina Shores | 30 | $375,276 | 93 | 6.2 Months |
| Caswell Beach | 2 | $ 1,725,000 | 129 | 2 Months |
| Holden Beach | 31 | $1,168,490 | 75 | 6.3 Months |
| Leland | 258 | $495,171 | 64 | 2.5 Months |
| Navassa | 9 | $309,658 | 61 | 3 Months |
| Oak Island | 182 | $848,610 | 88 | 4.1 Months |
| Ocean Isle | 165 | $759,220 | 86 | 3.4 Months |
| Rieglewood | 1 | $249,900 | 56 | NA |
| Shallotte | 88 | $350,756 | 79 | 4.2 Months |
| Southport | 208 | $593,604 | 95 | 9.9 Months |
| Sunset Beach | 94 | $557,635 | 91 | 4.7 Months |
| Supply | 117 | $438,129 | 85 | 4 Months |
| Winnabow | 55 | $337,781 | 67 | 1.7 Months |
New Hanover County
Shaped like an ice cream cone with the Atlantic Ocean to the east and the Cape Fear River on the west, New Hanover County is a very narrow land mass. Consequently, there is not a lot of undeveloped space in Wilmington or its neighboring communities, and construction of new communities is few and far between here. That means the housing market is almost exclusively based on the sales of existing homes. Right now, countywide, there are 779 active homes on the market throughout New Hanover County, which equates to 2.6 months’ worth of supply—so it is still very much a seller’s market with the smallest inventory inside Wilmington’s city limits.
| Town | Homes on the Market | Average Price | Average D.O,M | Inventory by months |
| Carolina Beach | 133 | $779,852 | 88 | 4.4 Months |
| Castle Hayne | 16 | $402,645 | 54 | 3.4 Months |
| Kure Beach | 39 | $2,018,501 | 163 | 4.3 Months |
| Wilmington | 554 | $768,914 | 84 | 1.9 Months |
| Wrightsville Beach | 24 | $2,682,788 | 133 | 4 Months |
Pender County
For a long time, Pender County was considered to be almost the forgotten county in the Cape Fear region. While Wilmington and Brunswick were exploding, the growth seemed more manageable in Pender— that is until the latest census report came out showing that Pender County’s population had increased by 15% in just one decade. Like Brunswick, land is plentiful in Pender County, and developers have been investing in areas like Hampstead and Rocky Point—now they are even venturing further north to Burgaw. But at the moment, empty acres still far outnumber developments. Consequently, sellers still have an advantage in Pender County. Right now, there are 290 homes on the market throughout Pender County, which equates to 2.8 months of inventory.
| Town | Homes on the Market | Average Price | Average D.O.M | Inventory by Months |
| Atkinson | 3 | $269,633 | 69 | NA |
| Burgaw | 26 | $405,454 | 63 | 2.4 Months |
| Currie | 3 | $393,267 | 78 | 3 Months |
| Hampstead | 131 | $667,695 | 102 | 2.1 Months |
| Rocky Point | 25 | $398,643 | 72 | 1 Month |
| Surf City | 61 | $744,451 | 72 | 1.9 Months |
| Topsail Beach | 16 | $1,099,300 | 56 | 4 months |
| Watha | 1 | $205,000 | 20 | NA |